Last February when we published the North Valley Real Estate Report, the housing market was, well, challenging. Real estate agents were just coming off of a difficult fall and normally slow Christmas. But shortly after we published, the real estate market took off, spurred on by low mortgage rates.

Once again, we have surveyed the real-estate professionals in the North Valley to come up with a comprehensive view into the home sales market in Anthem and other North Valley areas. Everyone that owns a house here needs to know how their investment is doing, and real estate appraisers and realtors can provide some of that information.

Boom, Boom, Boom
The growth in the Anthem resale market last year was staggering. In 2003, the average sales price of homes listed on the MLS was $239,000. Flash forward to 2004, where the average price jumped to $306,000. The average days on market was 55, with a 98% list to sales price ratio.  The summer of 2004 was a hot selling season, with buyers snatching up homes. "Homes on the market when from 350 to under 80," says Jeff Wallen, owner of Hot Reality in Anthem. The builder was enacting price increases and lotteries, while resales were getting multiple bidders.

Agents are still a little giddy after last summer. "The market was tremendously better - unbelievable," says Ana Woods from Artizan Realty. "Since the builders were releasing only a few homes at a time and construction time was 8 months, we saw the resale market take off." She mentions a home in the Anthem Country Club she sold for $242,000 and resold a year later in 2004 for $395,000.

"The Season" in realtor terms is pretty much any time other than the 3 or 4 months that surround the Christmas and Thanksgiving holidays. Late spring brings in buyers with last winter's snow still fresh in mind and our 70 and 80 degree temperatures looking pretty good. Summer brings good results as well because it is an ideal family moving time, giving kids a chance to settle in before a new school year.

Lower priced homes sold quickly, as long as they were priced competitively. "Homes from the high 200's to the low 300's have been selling pretty quickly," says Kathy Lund, from Daisy Mountain Real Estate. In fact, there currently are currently no homes in Anthem for sale under $200,000. The "starter home" with around 1300 square feet sells in the $220's. Families with more than one child may want a larger home, pushing the price up to $300,000, which will buy you a 2100 square foot home with 4 bedrooms.

But contrary to popular belief, there aren't two parents with two kids in every Anthem home. Anthem draws a decent size contingency of empty-nesters and couples without children. "I just sold a home to a couple without kids because they love the atmosphere," says Kathy Lund. "Another buyer was a lady in her 50's who wasn't interested in living at a retirement community." Because there is a diverse population buying homes, there isn't one "thing" that buyers have to have. Some people want pools, some won't even consider a home with one. Some buyers want a view fence, and others want their privacy.

One home segment that has been moving more slowly than other segments is the $700,000 and over market. With the pool of buyers for expensive homes much smaller, they may take months to sell. Buyers in this price range also demand expensive amenities, like granite countertops, oversized tile, and professional quality appliances.

Real Estate has been hot valley wide, and other North Valley areas are receiving great interest from buyers as well. "The New River / Circle Mountain area is climbing fast," says Jeff Wallen, who recently sold his own home in the area. "People are making offers on houses before they are even listed." He remarks that there isn't much land in that area that builders haven't taken, and supply is exceeding demand.

Anthem Resale Extremes (Courtesy of Linda Rewhalt- statistics from MLS)

The "Country Club" Effect
Most Anthem Real Estate Agents agree that prices in the Anthem Country Club will see a healthy increase as the Country Club reaches build-out in another 2 years. The Country Club will always have an "exclusive" feel, because it is a gated community and has two golf courses. Because of that, prices are usually higher there than in other Anthem areas.

And of course, golf course and view lots are always in demand.

"In the upper markets, people are looking at spending a million and up," says Brack Jaskey from Windermere Real Estate. "But in the Anthem Country Club, they can spend $750,000 and get a bigger home with a better view, less congestion and fantastic club amenities." Brack always mentions the "small town" atmosphere to his customers, which is difficult to find in the over-crowded Scottsdale area where higher priced buyers congregate. He also tries to put buyers in the homes that will fit their lifestyle and expectations. Each Anthem Country Club neighborhood has its own personality. Some offer larger lots with views of the city, others feature smaller, lower maintenance lots, and some back to the mountain and offer more privacy. Golf course living has its pros and cons as well. Home prices, even for the same or similar models, can vary dramatically depending upon where the home is situated.

Investor Mania
Have you noticed the number of "for rent" signs around? There are over 150 homes for lease in Anthem. That shows "The Investors" have moved into town. It sounds like a good reality TV show, but for residents here, it will be reality until the real estate market cools. " California buyers are coming to invest," says Doreen Drew, who says she gets many calls from potential investors from not only California , but Nevada as well.

The result of all this investor interest is that it makes the real estate market a bit more treacherous. "There are 2 types of investors in the Anthem market," says Brian O'Neil, from Keller Williams Southwest Realty. "The long term investor that can afford to hold on, and the investors that are making their first speculative deal." The latter, he says, will be in the biggest dan ger if the market doesn't turn up dramatically. Because these investors may lack capital and cannot usually get a renter to cover the mortgage payments and homeowner dues, they may be forced to sell too early.

Another phenomena that O'Neil sees, is speculators that buy homes and don't put in landscaping or window treatments in before trying to sell - at a premium price. Or they may put only the minimum amount of landscaping and keep amenities to a minimum. Potential buyers will have to factor in the extra costs to add these two necessary items, something that those of us that bought new homes are very familiar with.

The Crystal Ball
There are a record number of 350 homes on the market in Anthem now, a far cry from the go-go months of summer. Last year at this time, there was a hefty inventory of homes as well, which was followed by a healthy market later in the year. Will the spring-and-summer real estate market boom here again?

Anthem realtors were overwhelmingly positive for the long term, expecting the market to have healthy gains. Some expect real estate to have another good year, and most think that once Parkside and Anthem Country Club is built out, that prices will see a healthy increase. Jacqueline Roesma from Phantom Realty compares Anthem now to Desert Ridge during construction. "I watched Desert Ridge from infancy to today," she says. "In Desert Ridge, I now have a hard time finding anything under $300,000. I think when the new builds are done, we'll see another spurt of appreciation in 2007."

"A lot of people in Anthem panic when it is the slow season," says Jeff Wallen, from Hot Realty. "I've been here since before there was a Safeway. People don't move their kids in the middle of the school year." He is confident that this year will be even better than the last, with a hot spring-summer-fall season that will see large home price appreciation.

A big "what if" is the mortgage rates, which will probably continue to rise, but how much is anyone's guess. And facing the unknown of whether buyers will disappear this year because of higher rates and higher prices, realtors and potential home sellers are holding their collective breath. The Las Vegas home market went through a correction last year because the real estate prices got ahead of the buyers. Pulte Homes actually reduced their new home prices in that market.

Though we're on the tail end of the slow season, Brian O'Neil from Keller Williams Southwest Realty has been seeing a big increase in buyer interest. "The number of inquiries we've received recently is huge," he says, remarking that his appointment book for new buyers is starting to build. O'Neil also believes that because the builder has fewer spec homes for sale than they did 2 years ago, the market now is in better shape than it was then. Only after they are complete do homes go in the MLS listings.

You can find arguments for the continued appreciation of smaller homes and larger homes. "If you want to upsize your home, now is a good time," says Jeff Wallen, owner of Hot Realty in Anthem. He's bullish about the Anthem market this next year, even if rates continue to rise. He believes that Anthem family size will continue to grow, fueling demand for large homes and increasing their value. Other realtors are finding that Anthem is an attractive place to retire. Some people who want to retire here in a few years are buying now to avoid a possible future price spike.

Anthem still has value even after the heavy appreciation of 2004. "Anthem is still very affordable compared to Scottsdale , Vistancia, Verrado and Arrowhead," says Linda Rehwalt, realtor with RE/MAX. "Buyers can't get anything as nice in Scottsdale as Anthem has for the same price." Doreen Drew from Daisy Mountain Real Estate says that she gets calls daily from agents wanting to bring their clients to Anthem. "I talk to agents from all over the valley. There is no inventory any place else, particularly Scottsdale where some homes get 3-4 offers on a house," she says.

Real estate agents by nature are optimistic about the homes they sell, and this market is no different. They have no trouble finding positive things about Anthem- the established communities, the new High School and Library, landscaping and the small town feel. Whether those positives can continue to grow home prices will be better known once the summer season begins.

The North Valley Real Estate Report

Tips for selling your home
Whether it's job relocation, family situations or the too-long commute, there are actually people leaving the beautiful North Valley . The way you present your property to prospective buyers can make all the difference. Here are some quick tips to help you make the home selling process faster and more profitable.

Pick the right Agent . Find a real estate agent that you respect and can work with. Agents that specialize in your area will be able to offer better advice on pricing your home. Choosing your friend who usually sells homes in Scottsdale may not be the best move, especially in the North Valley , where the whole culture is different, as well as the home prices. Brack Jaskey from Windemere Realty suggests that you interview two agents to compare their marketing strategies and see who you feel most comfortable with.

The Price Must be Right . Enthusiastic home selling markets breed price inflation. "I think that many homes here are over-priced," says Jacqueline Roesma, owner of Phantom Realty . In a rising market, these homes may sit on the market longer than others. Also, you may need to move beyond feeling that you should get dollar-for-dollar on every home addition, including pools and some over-the-top landscaping. "A pool doesn't add the value that you pay for," says Kathy Lund, with Daisy Mountain Real Estate. "If buyers want a pool, I suggest they buy a house with a pool already included."

Turn up the curb appeal : At this time of year, yards can look a bit anemic because of frost damage. Replace those dead or sickly plants, and make sure the weeds are pulled. Add some potted flowers or flowering plants for extra color.

Get Exposure : Jacqueline Roesma believes that homes sell faster when they get in the public eye. "We run ads for specific properties, have open houses and send mailers," she says. Consider having a flier readily available in the home to point out the great things about your property that visiting realtors might miss.

Banish the clutter : One of the reasons models look so great is that there is zero clutter. Consider packing some of the items you don't use and putting them neatly in the garage or (even better) in storage facilities. Remember that buyers like to open closets, so de-clutter them also - fold towels nicely, organize kitchen cupboards and remove hanging clothes you don't use often to make closets look spacious. Consider keeping cupboards only about half full to give the feeling of spaciousness.

Take the smell test . If you have smokers, pets or kids, make sure your home is smell free. Several local real estate agents agreed that this was a major turn-off for buyers.

Wake up the Walls : A new paint job may be the best thing you can do to spruce up the look of your home. Neutral colors are usually best, but brighter colors in some rooms may be ok. That pink bedroom your daughter loves may not show well to potential buyers. Get your realtor's opinion on whether you should repaint some of those more original paint jobs. Also, check the outside home for paint health. Even exterior paint in homes that are 5 years old can show signs of needing a new coat.

And, right before the buyers visit : Turn on the lights, even in the daytime, and make sure curtains are open. Make sure all dirty dishes are hidden and the kitchen counters are spotless. Make sure bathrooms smell nice and cultured marble countertops shine .